How Accurate Is Zestimate (Really)?

A 2025 Breakdown for Homeowners and Buyers

If you’ve looked up your home on Zillow, you’ve seen the Zestimate—a number that seems precise, powerful, and maybe even a little mysterious. But how accurate is Zestimate, really?

The short answer: it depends. Zestimate can be surprisingly close in some markets and wildly off in others. Here’s what every homeowner, buyer, and seller needs to know in 2025 before relying on that number to make major decisions.

What Is Zestimate and How Is It Calculated?

Zestimate is Zillow’s proprietary home valuation model designed to provide an estimated market value for individual homes across the United States. It appears prominently on nearly every property listing page on Zillow and has become one of the most recognized automated valuation models (AVMs) in the real estate industry.

But how does Zillow actually calculate a Zestimate?

Data Sources That Power Zestimate

The accuracy of a Zestimate hinges on the data it receives. The core inputs include:

Public tax records and property data: This includes square footage, lot size, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, year built, tax assessments, and ownership history.
MLS listing data: In markets where Zillow has agreements with local MLSs (Multiple Listing Services), active listing data can be used to improve accuracy. This includes interior photos, amenities, days on market, and listing price changes.
Sales history and nearby comparable sales (“comps”): Zestimate heavily leans on recent sales of nearby, similar homes to generate a comparative estimate.
Market trends: Zillow incorporates local and regional market conditions—like appreciation rates, supply/demand indicators, and seasonal shifts—into its forecasting model.
User-submitted updates: If a homeowner claims their home on Zillow, they can update features like renovations, upgrades, or added square footage, which may adjust the Zestimate.

Zestimate’s Machine Learning Backbone

Behind the scenes, Zestimate is powered by complex machine learning algorithms which evaluate:

Similarity between homes (size, location, condition)
Distance from comparable homes
Time since those comps sold
Historical patterns for pricing in a neighborhood

Zillow’s model is constantly learning and updating, and all that is great news —at least it SOUNDS great—but how accurate is Zestimate right now, with your home?
And how does a Zestimate match up to CMA results provided by an established, experienced SWFL Realtor®?

Keep reading. We’re getting there!

How Accurate Is Zestimate in 2025?

According to Zillow’s own data, Zestimates for off-market homes in parts of Florida — including the Miami–Fort Lauderdale area — have a median error rate of 7.18%. That means if Zillow says your home is worth $400,000, the real number could easily be off by more than $28,000 in either direction.

It gets worse when you look at the odds:

Fewer than 4 in 10 homes (just 37%) have a Zestimate within 5% of their actual sale price
Nearly 15% of Zestimates miss the mark by more than 20%

That kind of margin can mislead both buyers and sellers — setting the wrong expectations before a showing even happens. Zestimates may be fine for casual curiosity, but they’re no substitute for a local pricing strategy grounded in real market data.

Others, including a 2024 Business Insider article, view the tool as “dangerously misguided.”

When Zestimate Undermines the Listing Price

Ahhh, then there’s the low Zestimates, in fact MUCH lower than the list price. This Sarasota listing is a prime example:

Listing Price: $549,000
Zestimate: $521,800
Discrepancy: $27,200 below asking price

For potential buyers browsing Zillow, that price gap instantly suggests the home is overpriced. Even if the list price is backed by comps, renovations, or curb appeal, the buyer has already been primed to question it because of the Zestimate.

The Zestimate:

Doesn’t see the interior upgrades
Has no clue about roof age, HVAC replacement, or lot desirability
Can’t value things like layout flow, natural light, or recent staging

The result? A potential buyer walks in already skeptical, or worse, doesn’t reach out at all.

This is a prime example of how an inaccurate Zestimate doesn’t just mislead — it can cost sellers thousands in perception-driven negotiation losses.

So if you’re asking how accurate is Zestimate, the answer in this case is: not very.

💡 What Should Home Sellers Do Instead?

Zillow often assigns a Zestimate to your home — even if it’s not currently listed for sale. It’s a strategy they use to generate extra traffic and keep homeowners checking in. And it works. But when you’re actually preparing to sell, the last thing you want to do is send people to that page.

Why? Because once your home is listed, that old or inaccurate Zestimate sticks — and if it’s lower than your asking price (which it often is), it creates doubt in the buyer’s mind before they’ve even scheduled a showing.

That’s why I don’t send potential buyers to Zillow. Instead, I feature your home here on the SWFL Real Estate Guide, where I can control how your property is presented — with high-quality photos, accurate pricing, and no auto-generated estimate working against you.

Here’s why that matters:

You don’t control the narrative on Zillow
You can’t hide the Zestimate, even when it’s inaccurate.
You risk damaging your negotiating position before buyers ever see your home

On this site, your home’s features will truly shine — from curated photo galleries and compelling property descriptions to accurate pricing backed by a detailed Comparative Market Analysis (CMA), local absorption rates, recent closed comps, and days-on-market metrics. I don’t just list your property — I position it with the right data, market timing, and buyer psychology in mind to maximize both visibility and perceived value from the very first click.

How Zestimate Compares to a Local CMA

A Zestimate might look official, but it’s still a general estimate based on public data and mathematical models. It doesn’t walk your property. It doesn’t consider the condition of your roof, the upgrades you’ve made, or the view from your lanai.

That’s where a CMA (Comparative Market Analysis) comes in.

As your local REALTOR®, I use:

Accurate, recent sales data from the Southwest Florida MLS
Active and pending listings that show what your home competes with right now
Insight into neighborhood demand, buyer behavior, and price movement
In-person knowledge of your home’s unique features, layout, and location

Zestimate is an algorithm. A CMA is a strategy. One guesses your value. The other helps you maximize it.

Still Have Questions? You’re Not Alone.

At this point, you might be wondering how to apply all this to your own situation — or maybe you’re still unsure what to believe when you see that Zestimate next to your home. That’s totally normal. Below are a few of the most common questions I get from sellers when it comes to Zillow, pricing, and how to move forward with confidence.

Quick FAQ: What Sellers Want to Know

Q: Is Zestimate ever accurate?
In some areas, yes — especially when Zillow has access to recent MLS data. But even then, it can be off by tens of thousands of dollars due to missing context. In reality, planned communities, where properties are much more homogeneous, are ideal for Zestimate accuracy.

Q: Can I update or correct my Zestimate?
You can claim your home on Zillow and submit information like renovations or added square footage. However, changes aren’t guaranteed, and Zillow may still pull outdated comps.

Q: Do buyers really believe the Zestimate?
Unfortunately, some of them really do. Many buyers use it as a baseline — which is exactly why it’s risky to send them there if your Zestimate is wrong.

Q: What can a seller do about an inaccurate Zestimate?
The best advice I can give you is to stop worrying about fixing it — and start focusing on where buyers are actually looking.

You can claim your home on Zillow and try to update the information, but even then, you can’t remove or override the Zestimate entirely. Instead, the smarter move is to direct attention away from it altogether. I’ll feature your home here on the SWFL Real Estate Guide — with accurate pricing, professional presentation, and no automated estimate to confuse buyers or undercut your value.